Among all the good news in the States — COVID cases are dropping dramatically, masks are coming off and people are traveling again — there are worrisome indicators abroad that we may be in for a rise in cases of the contagious BA.2 subvariant.
As we’ve seen, what happens in Europe and especially England is a warning bell for the U.S.
In the UK, where BA.2 now accounts for 85% of new infections, cases have increased by 20% week-over-week. Hospitalizations are up about 22% compared to the prior week and death rates are climbing.
Health officials are sounding the alarm, warning that COVID infections will rise in the US in a few weeks, parallel to trends in the UK and Europe. But is anyone listening?
Already in the US, BA.2 has caused about 35% of cases, up from 22% the week before.
Dr. Carlos Del Rio, an infectious disease specialist commented, “So my guess is that we’re going to have a surge, but it’s not going to be a severe surge,” he said, though he’s still worried about the 25% of Americans that aren’t protected.
To give you a comparison, the UK is more highly vaccinated than the US. Among those ages 12 and older, 86% of the population has had two doses of a vaccine, while more than two-thirds have gotten a third or booster dose. In the US, 74% of individuals ages 12 and older have had two doses of a vaccine, but just 46% have had a booster.
“I would not be surprised at all if we do see somewhat of an uptick,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a live interview on Tuesday with the Washington Post. “I don’t really see, unless something changes dramatically, that there will be a major surge,” he said.
In the good news file, Dr. Del Rio predicts:
“I predict the CDC in the next week or two is going to recommend a fourth dose for people over 65. If you’re 65, and you get infected, you could still have very severe disease despite being vaccinated.’
We’ll be first in line.